A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."